As the broader crypto market remains volatile, Toncoin (TON) has caught the attention of traders and investors alike. Recently, TON experienced a significant dip, dropping from $6.00 to a low of $5.20. The question now is whether this coin can bounce back or if it will continue on a downward trajectory.
Let’s dive into the current state of TON using technical analysis to identify key levels, trends, and potential strategies for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
Current Market Overview
At the time of writing, TON is trading at $5.209, hovering just above the key support level of $5.20. The coin has been in a consistent downtrend over the last several days, as indicated by the moving averages and MACD signals.
Despite its recent decline, the coin has historically been a solid performer, and many traders are eager to see whether it can regain its bullish momentum. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether TON continues its slide or stages a recovery.
Technical Analysis of TON
Moving Averages
On the 1-hour chart, we can see that the 7-period SMA is currently at $5.229, just above the current price, which indicates short-term resistance. Meanwhile, the 25-period SMA is sitting higher at $5.328, reflecting a more prolonged period of downward pressure.
The 99-period SMA, which is often used to identify long-term trends, is positioned at $5.344. This suggests that TON has been in a sustained bearish phase, with the price consistently failing to break above this key resistance level.
On the 4-hour chart, the 7-period SMA sits at $5.20, which coincides with the current support level, while the 99-period SMA is located around $5.34. Both timeframes suggest that the current resistance is strong, and TON needs to see a significant volume increase to break through.
MACD Indicator
The MACD on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts tells a story of weakening momentum. The MACD line is currently below the signal line, a bearish sign indicating further downside potential.

On the 1-hour chart, the MACD is at -0.011, while the signal line is at -0.042, further cementing the bearish sentiment. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD line is slightly higher at -0.011, but the negative crossover still signals that traders should be cautious about entering long positions at this time.
Volume Analysis
Trading volume is another critical indicator to watch, and at the moment, the volume is relatively low. The most recent volume spike on October 2 seems to have been a selling climax, indicating that the bears may be temporarily exhausted.
However, the continued low volume suggests that there isn’t enough buying interest to spark a significant reversal. Traders will want to keep an eye on any uptick in volume, as that could signal a change in market sentiment and momentum.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels
- $5.20 – The immediate support level, which is critical for TON to maintain. A break below this could signal further downside, with the next support level coming in at $5.00.
- $5.00 – A psychological level of support that could act as a floor for any further price declines.
Resistance Levels
- $5.35 – Immediate resistance, which aligns with both the 99-period SMA on the 1-hour chart and the 7-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
- $5.60 – A more substantial resistance level that needs to be broken for TON to return to its bullish trend.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Bullish Scenario
For TON to reverse its recent downward trend, it needs to break above $5.35, which is both a psychological and technical resistance level. If it can close above this mark, the next target would be $5.60, a level that could signal the start of a new bullish phase.
If buying volume increases and the MACD starts showing bullish divergence, traders may consider entering long positions, targeting the $5.60 level or even higher.
Bearish Scenario
On the other hand, if TON fails to hold the $5.20 support level, a break below this could result in a sharper decline toward $5.00. In this case, traders may look to short the market or exit their long positions to avoid further losses.
A drop below $5.00 would open the door to even lower levels, possibly testing $4.80, which was last seen in mid-September. For those with a bearish outlook, this might be the ideal scenario to enter short trades with appropriate stop-loss levels.
Consolidation Scenario
It’s also possible that TON could enter a period of consolidation between $5.20 and $5.35. In this scenario, scalpers and day traders could take advantage of the sideways movement, entering and exiting positions based on short-term price fluctuations. However, this strategy requires tight risk management and quick decision-making.
Recommendations for Traders and Investors
For Short-Term Traders
- Bullish Entry: Enter a long position if TON breaks above $5.35 with strong volume, targeting $5.60 and placing a stop-loss just below $5.20.
- Bearish Entry: If the price breaks below $5.20, consider entering a short position with a target of $5.00 or lower, placing a stop-loss at $5.35.
For Long-Term Investors
For those with a longer investment horizon, $5.00 may provide an attractive entry point. Historically, TON has performed well at these levels, and long-term investors could accumulate at these lower prices, especially if they believe in the fundamentals of the project.
However, given the current bearish momentum, it may be wise to wait for more substantial signs of recovery before committing to large positions.
Conclusion
TON is at a critical point, hovering just above the key support level of $5.20. Whether the market will break higher or lower remains to be seen, but traders and investors alike should keep a close eye on key resistance and support levels, as well as trading volume and MACD indicators.
For short-term traders, there are both bullish and bearish opportunities, depending on how the price action unfolds in the coming days. Meanwhile, long-term investors may want to wait for a deeper correction or clearer signs of recovery before entering.
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